A new line of debate has begun to encircle the near future of Anambra state because the forecast for this future is somewhat unchartered; somewhat new and by every means unusual. Guber elections are the main fixture for the next set of days which are just countable by the fingers of one hand–November 6–when the state’s political heavyweights get to slug it out at the polls for the governorship position. The underdogs of this political slugfest exist in the background but in a most bizarre twist their contest is not in the elections but against it.
To them the coming elections are but a leverage to achieve more sacred political goals than just change the faces in Awka. The campaign points of this anti-election party are so nascent that they predate the creation of Anambra state itself. Little wonder the radius of the IPOB’s “sit-at-home” order spans beyond the boundaries of the state. It covers the whole of the South Eastern region with supporters in the diaspora.
Reactions
We start from the IPOB’s sphere of influence itself and Anambra state in particular. A leader of a Coalition of Eastern Civil Societies, Emeka Umeagbalasi opines that:
If election does not hold on November 6, 2021, it means you have created a state of anarchy and a total breakdown of law and order in Anambra State. What this means is that the President of the Federal Republic of Nigeria cannot keep quiet and allow a part of the country to degenerate to anarchy… I’m sure this is not what the people of Anambra State want at this point in time.
https://punchng.com/sit-at-home-will-cause-emergency-rule-declaration-in-anambra-csos-tell-ipob/
The forebodings, warnings and expressions of disapproval against the IPOB’s call for the boycott continues to spread and deepen. Rinu Oduala, one of the popular faces during last year’s EndSARS protests has been criticized for calling the sit-at-home “FOOLHARDY” in a tweet
Other activists and acclaimed social justice crusaders follow suit aligning with Rinu’s position to hector the boycott as ill-timed; on some accounts ill-intended and ill-fated. At least their judgment revolves around these conclusions.
Mounting pressure had increased on the IPOB’s sit-at-home even when it did not threaten to eclipse gubernatorial elections. True, not everyone identified with the IPOB from the onset but recent events have made this party more controversial, perhaps some “disagreeable” methods have clouded the intents and purposes of IPOB’s election boycott for onlookers.
This might not be well beyond unexpected as the sit-at-home and those “disagreeable” methods are perhaps linked by origins. A brief digression might help clear the fog so we can see what lies beneath and at the same time marries the militancy of the IPOB with the sit-at-home.
A brief digression…
The immediate aim of the “sit-at-home” boycott is to demand freedom for the incarcerated leader of the IPOB. Even at that the “sit-at-home” draws its rationality and motivation from two mass executions in recent history: the Lekki massacre and the Obigbo massacre. While the former is so prominent, the latter not so much, yet the Obigbo massacre is of greater significance to the discourse as the main target were allegedly IPOB members and sympathizers. These two massacres serve as the tipping point for the group following a long thread of casualties from mass executions they have suffered.
Since the IPOB is a movement for self determination of the Igbo people, political actions such as rallies and demonstrations have to be utilized. In most instances, like a push and pull mechanism, along with these comes backlash from the powers of the incumbent societal order.
For the IPOB, this backlash takes the morbid form of cold blood killings of its members when they are out demonstrating or after dark in their cells. Long before these war-like responses from the government forced the IPOB to explore lockdowns as her next political war head, it had forced them to fortify themselves with arms. So in a regular milieu of IPOB men one is bound to see at least a rifle, usually the AK-47 type. Moreso to the point that the Eastern Security Network (ESN) was formed.
Bearing arms makes any question of what might enter the imagination of these men a spicy dish at the table of public concern. Especially now that they have an official armed wing.
Even though the IPOB has reiterated that the ESN will only be active in combating “disguised” forms of terrorism spreading from Northern Nigeria to the South Eastern part of the country in the company of Fulani nomads. An armed body of men without the government’s blessing remains a pill too tough to swallow.
Then there is the question of identification/certainty. How does one know that it is the ESN which is in operation or that has just completed a mission. Those who berate the IPOB/ESN because of this are not being fair for even government forces from local to Federal and beyond can be impersonated. Well such facts would always be smothered by the emergence and activities of the “unknown gunmen”.
Somehow public opinion holds that the IPOB/ESN should be blamed for the rise of the “unknown gunmen” who have been responsible for the prison breaks; attacks on top ranking government officials; raids on paramilitary stations cum installations; leading to the general descent of the whole region to ungovernability. Forgetting that it was government reaction that forced the Biafra movement to embrace kinetics as a means to keep its struggle alive.
So against the backdrop of an acclaimed ungovernable region, attacks on INEC facilities is becoming more frequent the nearer the elections in Anambra. At this point the clashes between paramilitary forces and unknown gunmen has peaked at least compared with past records. However IPOB has not claimed responsibility for every such clash. This should not be hastily labelled cowardice because the reality in societies where the government has forced its citizens to pick up arms might not appear exactly in black and white.
From Syria to Afghanistan to Yemen and even Libya, armed groups irrespective of their shade and colour; irrespective of the public sympathy they enjoy or the unpopularity they face; have splinter cells and independent scions. Some groups often breakout or are formed afresh in opposition or support of the course of the main group.
Not only those groups which breakaway oppose the larger group but also groups formed without direct connection to it. As many have suspected that some raids by armed gangs are orchestrated by state loyalists or forces to dent the image of the IPOB and justify more attacks on the group as reprisals.
This should not be interpreted as exclusion of the IPOB from the raids on police, prison and other apparati of the state including INEC. Only that the IPOB is not responsible for all.
Anambra elections: a way forward?
Unlike attacks on various governmental institutions the voting boycott is undeniably a feat of the main IPOB body. This fact deepens a special contradiction which is an exclusive property of this new effort. Rather than a thing which is absconded should voting not be the Stork that will bring the Igbo people Biafra and Biafra to the Igbo people. This is the apogee of a conflict between social movements and elections playing out in real life. Just to further simplify the question a tweet from one of such engagements goes thus:
If IPOB can participate and win election from ward to governorship,,, their long search after freedom comes.
https://twitter.com/Agapelo15745260/status/1452527869981192195?t=CY9m2VnA9sRh3OcQGYah9Q&s=19
Those who argue like this display an astounding forgetfulness. The cradle of the cause for Biafra began with all the might of officialdom there was at the time. Ojukwu was the military governor of the Eastern region of Nigeria as it then was. The official powers bestowed upon him were in such high esteem as to guarantee him a meeting with the Head of state on neutral grounds the resolutions of which will go down in history as the Aburi Accord.
In Spain, the leaders of Catalonian secessionist are the duly elected representatives in parliament yet an independent Catalonia is still a dream to be fought for. So it seems accusing IPOB of foiling the chance of achieving a free and independent Biafra overestimate the power of electoral politics.
In today’s world elections are fast losing their potency to bring desired change. As already espoused by political commentary people have become generally apathetic to elections:
Don’t forget that there has always been voter apathy in Anambra state, even when there were no threats. In the last election, just 230,000 people determined the winner by voting for Chief Willie Obiano, what that tells you is that this year, the winner of the election may score less than 150,000 votes. But the important thing is that a winner will emerge.
https://dailypost.ng/2021/10/29/anambra-election-electorates-may-defy-threats-to-elect-new-governor/
From the coup in Burma; to the blatant election fraud in Belarus and Uganda; the powerful have always overturned the outcomes of democratic elections even when the electorate massively participated at the polls. Disillusionment then is the other factor responsible for the IPOB’s elections boycott
While injustice and mayhem ravages the land why should power change the hands of its brokers without resolving the fundamental causes of the social injustice. None of the gubernatorial candidates has a program addressing the burning matter of self determination championed by the Biafra movement. Instead these set of power hungry politicians attack or connive in attacking the movement for self determination of the South Eastern Igbos.
Elections themselves can only be a tool of social movements and as such the IPOB uses it to its own advantage. Mind you the major actors in the Nigerian political space have always subordinated elections to their personal interests. The annulment of the June 12 elections is undying in the memories of countless Nigerians. Even the PDP regime in 2015 post poned the elections for a number of months to ensure a more favourable in the elections. In Osun state the APC administration declared the 2018 elections inconclusive after the votes.
The government has always decided the fate of the elections before or after the elections. So how are they any different from the IPOB.
Elections are tools of social movements and for all that we know, they are no eternal or even main feature of democracy. At present elections have become a means for recycling guardians of the old order instead of a process to bring social change.
Alas, our discourse would not be complete if we do not ascertain whether the Biafra movement was truly a movement for social change. Whether or not the marginalisation which prompted the crystallization of the IPOB and it’s predecessors such as the MASSOB are imaginary, perceived or real. While as has been mentioned this group been mentioned these groups have some disagreeable modus operandi, opposing them means opposing the cause that they stand or fight for.
In conclusion…
In the final reckoning, the unrest in the south east is bound to continue unless the question of the national freedom of the Igbos is answered. Undermining and ostracizing the self determination groups only spells the continuum of the mayhem and effectively taking the side of the Nigerian government who triggered the expansion and multiplication of violence in the region.
Standing elections on its head instead of making it a runway for social change will definitely bring it into conflict with the foremost social movements. When the purpose of a thing is unknown abuse becomes inevitable